Market Outlook: Soft or Solid?

Stock markets were mixed on Jan. 27, as the end of the week brought a new series of economic indicators for the fourth quarter of 2011 indicating that growth was around 2.8 percent, less than economists expected but still showing some anemic upturns.  The concern within the U.S. markets was centered on consumer spending, which was not too impressive over the holiday season.  Still, the U.S. looked better than Europe, where investors still look nervously at Greek and Italian debt and wonder if a second Euro-recession is in the air.

This set of mixed messages held true in FPGA markets as well. Lattice Semiconductor’s $70.2 million in revenues in the fourth quarter was down from the previous quarter and down from the same quarter in 2010.  Lattice CEO Darin Billerbeck said the company managed to show 7 percent growth in the year overall, and was integrating its fourth quarter acquisition of FPGA startup SiliconBlue Technology to position the company for future growth.  However, the company warned that it was anticipating a softening of demand in the semiconductor market overall (http://www.electronicsweekly.com/Articles/27/01/2012/52827/lattice-sees-softening-demand-in-chip-market.htm).

At Altera, quarterly revenues of $457.8 million in the fourth quarter were down 12 percent from the third quarter and down 18 percent from a year previous.  However, Altera CEO John Daane said the company had managed to grow 6 percent overall in a soft year (http://www.sacbee.com/2012/01/24/4211797/altera-announces-fourth-quarter.html).  Daane stressed that even if 2012 is not a stellar year among OEMs, “there are long-term technology trends that favor FPGAs.”

The results are as uncertain as markets themselves.  It seems at this point that the U.S. may have avoided a double-dip recession, and that Asia may experience some modest growth this year.  But Europe is still teetering on the edge of a second possible downturn.  Market trends do indeed favor FPGAs, which is why none of the market leaders are panicking.  But even if 2012 picks up from the four previous years a little bit, it will not be any boom year for FPGAs or semiconductors in general.

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